A new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change has found that the average temperature on earth could rise by 2.2°C to 2.9°C by 2100. According to the researchers, the commitments made by countries under the Paris Agreement will not be enough to stop and limit global warming.
The study questioned the warming estimations developed by the UN based on greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments and policies.
Noting that most climate projections are based on models that start with a desired final temperature for 2100 (+1.5°C or +2°C for example) and work backwards to establish what levers would be needed to achieve the result, researcher Glen Peters said the new study is a “prediction,” adding that “we model where existing policies take us and look at where we end up.”
According to the latest UN estimates, despite the new 2030 commitments announced just before and during the COP26 climate conference, the world is still heading towards a “catastrophic” 2.7°C of warming by the end of the century, far from the Paris agreement’s goal of limiting it to below +2°C, if possible +1.5°C, compared to the pre-industrial era.